High interest rates have slowed and complicated home-based care M&A, but they may also be creating a favorable buying opportunity for investors willing to enter the market now.
Buyers able to absorb higher borrowing costs may find a slower and more complex dealmaking landscape — one where compliance has become a critical screening tool, particularly in Medicaid-funded care, according to experts speaking at Home Health Care News’ Capital+Strategy conference in March. At the same time, speakers pointed to opportunities to build regional platforms through smaller acquisitions and to capitalize on potential long-term upside in skilled home health.
“We believe the opportunity for building regional platforms is stronger today than it’s ever been,” Daniel Schwartz, partner at Larix Capital Partners, said on a panel at Capital+Strategy. “We believe that we’re going to see the ability to buy small, integrate, operate and grow. We think it’s a really interesting formula, particularly in this moment that we’re in today.”
Larix Capital Partners is a private investment firm focusing on lower middle-market home care businesses.
While the opportunity for building regional platforms is strong, several factors complicate the M&A environment. One of these is lending rates. The cost of borrowing has increased significantly since 2021, and holding periods have lengthened as investors contend with COVID-era volatility in assets’ 2020 through 2023 results and seek to improve their investment story before exiting.
“What gets me excited is … the fact that so many people are sitting there and you see two large assets [start to] trade,” David Jackson, the CEO of Choice Health at Home, said on the panel. “You start to eye 2031 and some rate stability — that gets me excited. So I think it’s an exciting time to get in.”
Tyler, Texas-based Choice Health at Home provides home health, hospice and personal care in nine states.
While eyeing an attractive future for home-based care investment, buyers have to keep the heightened focus on fraud, waste and abuse in mind when shopping for a potential home-based care provider.
“What’s top of mind for me right now is the number 85, which represents where our targets need to be from an EDD compliance standpoint,” Mike Kotzen, the CEO of Amivie, said on the panel. “That shot up to the top of the list in terms of criteria we look at from an [acquisitive] standpoint.
Raleigh, North Carolina-based Amivie provides home- and community-based services, including personal home care, private duty nursing and respite care, to older adults, veterans and people with intellectual and developmental disabilities.
In years past, investors could acquire a home-based care asset and improve compliance after the fact. But in the current environment with a strong focus on program integrity, compliance must be top of mind, Kotzen said.
Industry-specific outlook
While experts agree about the strong potential for home-based care acquisitions, differing opportunities and risks exist across service lines.
For Schwartz, acquiring hospice providers at current valuations is off the table, as valuations for these providers remain elevated.
“We’re not buying a hospice at this point,” Schwartz said. “We’re going to build it. If it’s a nascent or small hospice, we’d rather build it and create that value then worry or think about the valuations today.”
Other service lines boast more attractive potential for buyers, despite some regulatory and reimbursement uncertainty.
Skilled home health has experienced continued reimbursement uncertainty, as the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid (CMS) has proposed cuts to the base Medicare reimbursement rate for the past few years. The latest proposed Medicare payment rule included an aggregate payment increase of 2.4%, but even with the proposed increase, industry insiders have some concerns about CMS’ approach to Medicare home health reimbursement.
Some of these regulatory concerns have likely contributed to a cooling effect on home health dealmaking, including in 2025 and 2026.
At Capital+Strategy in March, Jackson predicted that dealmaking in home health would rebound in 2028 and 2029, as Medicare reimbursement rates increase and technology evolves, allowing for improved automation. Jackson said he believes home health is currently undervalued, though he acknowledged that this view is not universally shared.
“I’m very bullish on skilled home health, which is probably a little bit contrarian,” Jackson said.
Medicaid home care has faced pressure over the last two years, including the threat of cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. But these pressures allow buyers to step in and consolidate an extremely fragmented market, according to Kotzen. Current reimbursement rates may not support smaller providers’ ability to implement extremely robust compliance protocols and technology integration.
“As a market consolidator, that puts us in a pretty good spot,” Kotzen said. “Our pipeline is as robust as it’s ever been, because all these challenges that we’re facing on a day-to-day basis, they hit a lot harder for these small mom and pop businesses.”
For home care, this landscape “opens the floodgates” for M&A potential, Kotzen said.
The post Opened Floodgates: Why Current M&A Pressures Favor Home-Based Care Consolidators appeared first on Home Health Care News.










